Randstad’s Finance team recently hosted a webinar hosted by Chief Economist Simon French, reflecting on the evolving economic landscape in the wake of Trump’s policies and their impact on the UK and Europe. With shifting trade dynamics, market reactions, and geopolitical uncertainties, the session provided an overview of the current state of markets following ‘Liberation Day’ and a fresh perspective on what lies ahead.
Here’s a summary of some of our key takeaways.
US tariffs and global economic outlook.
The recent US trade tariff announcements have sparked significant concerns about their potential economic consequences. These tariffs, described as “unprecedented”, raise fears of a possible global recession. Economic data from the UK paints a mixed picture, with payroll growth dipping into negative territory and inflation remaining a key concern. Additionally, there is speculation that investors may begin rotating away from US markets, which have been buoyed by substantial capital inflows driven by the country's trade deficit. Given these developments, a cautious approach appears increasingly prudent in navigating the current economic climate.
Simon French, Managing Director, Chief Economist and Head of Research at Panmure Liberum
US trade policies impact.
The potential ramifications of the US's new trade policies extend across multiple countries, including the UK and Ireland. Notably, the UK avoided a 10% tariff, possibly due to its trade deficit with the US. However, the broader impact of these policies could introduce considerable volatility in asset prices and interest rates, prompting finance directors to consider securing a stable cost of capital for the long term. Meanwhile, Ireland's position within the European Union may offer a degree of insulation, as tariffs are applied at a bloc-wide level rather than targeting individual member states.
In times of volatility, financial leaders must balance caution with opportunity. By maintaining a diversified portfolio, staying informed, and being prepared to pivot strategies, individuals and businesses can navigate economic uncertainty more effectively.
key themes.
1. economic climate & market volatility
Global markets continue to experience turbulence due to inflationary pressures and central bank interventions. Interest rate adjustments have had widespread effects on both investors and businesses. A core takeaway is that diversification is essential in uncertain times—spreading investments across different asset classes helps mitigate risk.
2. investment trends to watch
- Sustainable Investing: ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations are becoming more influential in investment decisions.
- Technology Growth: AI and cybersecurity sectors continue to thrive despite broader market fluctuations.
- Long-Term Strategies: Staying informed and adaptable is key to making sound investment choices.
3. managing personal finances during uncertainty
With rising costs of living, effective budgeting is more important than ever. The 50/30/20 rule—allocating 50% of income to necessities, 30% to discretionary spending, and 20% to savings and investments—remains a solid strategy. Automating savings can also help build financial resilience over time.
actionable advice for financial leaders.
A Q&A at the end of the session provided valuable insights into practical financial strategies. Here are some key takeaways:
- Diversify Investments: Spread assets across different industries and geographies to reduce risk.
- Stay Agile: Market conditions change rapidly; keep up with trends and adjust strategies accordingly.
- Prioritise Liquidity: Ensure access to cash reserves to handle unexpected market shifts.
- Emphasise Sustainable Investing: Companies with strong ESG metrics are likely to perform well in the long run.
- Encourage Financial Literacy: Educating employees and clients on economic changes can help them make informed decisions.